SUMMER is here at last – well, maybe not quite – but it cannot be far away as Flat racing on turf returns to Doncaster with the Lincoln meeting.
The main event features a very short-priced favourite in Auxerre for Godolphin and the money indicates he is believed to be well ahead of his mark.
But on form he has done little to justify his market position and, beyond the favourite, it looks wide open. Safe Voyage, Zwayyan, Saltonstall, South Seas, Ripp Orff, Kynren and Humbert all have solid claims. This may be one big handicap to sit out.
The opening Cammidge Stakes (1.50) makes more appeal. Invincible Army is top on official ratings but he lost form at the end of last year and may be best watched for now.
Equilateral was much-hyped after winning here in June but failed to quite fulfil the big hopes for him.
Arbalet progressed last year and should do well this term but he is dropping down to six furlongs so has something to prove.
Major Jumbo should go well but he likes to go from the front and those tactics are difficult here so the one with fewest doubts is EIRENE, who looks good each-way value with the fillies’ allowance.
She has form figures here of 123, trip and ground are perfect. What could go wrong? With apologies to Dexy’s Midnight Runner fans, Come on Eirene!
The consolation Lincoln, the Spring Mile (2.25), is typically won by a progressive four-year-old and Exec Chief, Al Jellaby and Sod’s Law all tick that box. But none were at their best last time and they may have little scope for further improvement.
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One who looks to be still on an upward curve is RAMPANT LION, who can roar home. He was in good form on turf for Mark Johnston last autumn and has continued to climb the ratings on the all-weather since joining Willie Jarvis.
He won quite cosily at Kempton last time and the runner-up went in there this week to boost the form. The 5lb penalty means he needs more but there looks to be plenty in the locker and the booking of the champion jockey can only be a plus.
There is also a terrific card at Kempton on the all-weather where MATTERHORN (2.05) has yet to peak and will be hard to pass in the Magnolia Stakes (2.05).
He has won his last five and there is no telling what heights he could reach. Last time, over course and distance, he trounced Executive Force by five lengths and the runner-up has won two handicaps from two starts since.
This race is run over the tight inner track and, from box one, Matterhorn is perfectly placed to make all.
Mootasadir has a similarly progressive profile but, after his latest win over 1m4f at Wolverhampton, connections were talking of aiming him at the Melbourne Cup in November.
I spy an eyecatcher...
Andrew Balding usually leaves something to work on with his newcomers so RANCH HAND could be a name to note after making a winning debut at Southwell on Wednesday.
The three-year-old beat two exposed but useful older horses trained by Ian Williams and Alan King, both rated around the 80 mark, with the front three clear.
The winner raced in the old ‘Mill Reef’ silks of Paul Mellon, now the property of Kingsclere Racing Club. The members should have some fun with Ranch Hand, who was winning over 1m4f and looks likely to develop into a useful stayer.
This speed test, and a 5lb penalty, may find him out. This is a high quality Listed event but the likes of Master The World, Big Country and Fabricate could all struggle if Matterhorn maintains his upward climb.
In the other big race at the Sunbury track, the Rosebery Handicap (3.15) KELLY’S DINO can go one better than when runner-up 12 months ago. He progressed well after that run, winning at Ascot in July, and is 15lb higher now. But he showed he could be competitive off his new mark when chasing home Mootasadir last time.
That run was after a six-month break so he should strip fitter now. He is nicely drawn in four and, given luck in running, looks sure to go close.
Count Calabash pinched a small-field handicap here from the front last time and may struggle to confirm that form with Caspar The Cub and Pipes Of Peace, who both have good track records.
Forbidden Planet is progressive and should be suited by the longer trip but he is up in class.
There is another good bet on the Kempton card, ILHABELA FACT in the last at 5.00. The lightly-raced five-year-old has already won here four times this winter and his latest success, when he cruised into contention before putting a similar event to bed in fine style, was his best effort yet.
Nylon Speed also goes well here but recent efforts seem to be indicating the handicapper just about has his measure.
Ilhabela Fact‘s stablemate Temur Khan is in good form but both his recent wins have been on the Fibresand at Southwell so he has something to prove at this very different track.
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News Photo Today’s FREE Horse racing tips: The Betting Spy’s top picks for Saturday’s racing at Doncaster and Kempton
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