After Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence and confirmed a crunch vote on her Brexit deal will not take place until after Christmas; Daniel Martin answers questions on what the PM's options are now and why the backstop is so toxic.
Under Theresa May’s Brexit agreement, the backstop comes in if no trade deal with the EU has been reached by the end of the transition period – on December 31, 2020. Until then the UK will continue to act largely as if it is an EU member state.
The backstop would, in effect, keep the UK in a customs union with the EU. It would also require Northern Ireland to sign up to EU single market rules while the rest of the UK would be largely free to set their own.
The two measures are designed to ensure the Irish border remains completely open to trade. However, it means that goods coming into Northern Ireland from Britain will have to be checked to see if they meet EU single market standards.
Under Theresa May’s Brexit agreement, the backstop comes in if no trade deal with the EU has been reached by the end of the transition period – on December 31, 2020. Until then the UK will continue to act largely as if it is an EU member state.
To the Democratic Unionist Party, which props up Mrs May’s Government, this undermines the Union by creating a regulatory barrier for goods crossing the Irish Sea.
At the same time, Tory Brexiteers do not like the backstop because there is no legally-binding end date – and no way for the UK to unilaterally leave it.
Britain could theoretically just walk away, but not without ripping up a major treaty and ending any chance of an EU trade deal. Inside the backstop, the UK’s ability to secure meaningful trade deals will be very limited.
Mrs May has been travelling round Europe trying to get changes to the backstop to support her argument it will not last indefinitely.
What are May’s options?
HER DEAL GETS THROUGH
Theresa May has just days to persuade her European partners to agree changes to the deal.
It is thought that her Withdrawal Agreement can only get through the Commons if the EU agrees to a legal addendum committing it to negotiating a free trade deal and agreeing a mechanism to allow the UK to exit the backstop unilaterally.
The PM would hope that such a change – however unlikely – would persuade the DUP to drop its opposition and back her.
It could also require a small number of Labour MPs to support the arrangement to counter-act the hardline Brexiteers determined to thwart it any cost. The deal is likely to be voted on before January 21 and the delay may help the Government by convincing MPs they have no alternative.
‘MANAGED NO DEAL’
However, if the Commons is determined not to pass Mrs May’s deal, refuses the option of a Norway-style soft Brexit and Article 50 is not extended, the only option may be No Deal.
That would see Britain moving to trade on much less advantageous World Trade Organisation rules, which could lead to higher tariffs – harming British business.
There are also concerns about chaos at Channel ports because of the need for customs and regulatory checks, leading to shortages of medicines and a significant short-term impact on the economy.
Some Brexiteers are in favour of this option. Others prefer a ‘managed no deal’, with various short-term agreements including cash payments to soften the impact. The question is whether the many Remainers in Parliament would find a mechanism to block it.
NORWAY-STYLE SOFT BREXIT
If Mrs May cannot secure legally-binding changes to her deal and it falls in the Commons, she has pledged to bring forward a motion by January 21 laying out what she will do next.
This will give Remainers such as Tory MP Dominic Grieve the chance to make their move and propose alternatives.
One option would be a Norway-style soft Brexit, where the UK stays in the EU single market by joining Efta, the free trade club of which Norway is a member.
'If Mrs May cannot secure legally-binding changes to her deal and it falls in the Commons, it will give Remainers such as Tory MP Dominic Grieve (pictured) the chance to make their move and propose alternatives'
We would be in the single market without having a say on the rules. The UK would also require a customs union with the EU.
But this option would mean large annual contributions and keeping free movement of people. However, some members of the Cabinet see it as a way of getting out – and it could win support from Labour MPs.
SECOND REFERENDUM
Some believe the defeat of the anti-May plot makes a softer Brexit or a second referendum more likely.
If her deal is rejected by the Commons and Labour fails to force a general election by passing a no-confidence motion in the Government, MPs may try to impose a second referendum via a vote in Parliament.
However, there would be huge squabbles about the question. Would it be Remain v No Deal, Remain v May’s Deal, or No Deal v May’s Deal? This would also require the extension of Article 50 because it takes months to organise a referendum.
GENERAL ELECTION
Should Mrs May lose the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal, Labour’s position is that it wants a general election.
It would put forward a no confidence motion, and all eyes would be on the DUP.
It would have to decide whether it wanted to risk the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn – a man who has campaigned all his life for a United Ireland – getting into No 10.
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News Pictures What is the backstop and why is it so toxic and what ARE Theresa May's options now?
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kim cattrall
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