GRAND NATIONAL
Key trends:
- Last nine winners had not run in the race before
- Stick to horses aged eight to 11
- Look between 148 and 160 in official ratings
- No more than two unseats or falls in career
- Must have won over 3m or further
- A run within the past three months has been important
THERE’S one trend in particular that should have fans of hot favourite Tiger Roll worried.
You have to go back to Mon Mome in 2009 for the last Grand National winner that had run in the race before.
You have to assume that the safety changes to the fences have made them less of a challenge so this has become more like the other top-class handicap chases. That could also explain why it’s much easier to carry bigger weights to win that it was for decades.
The National debut trend developing into a pretty strong stat and a big one to overlook especially with the bookies chalking up 7-2 about the Tiger.
He’s not the only one with Anibale Fly, Go Conquer, last year’s second Pleasant Company, 2017 winner One For Arthur, Warriors Tale, Regal Encore, Vieux Lion Rouge, Valseur Lido, Captain Redbeard and last year’s third Bless The Wings.
NATIONAL SWEEP Download your free Grand National sweepstake kit here
Ramses De Teillee is on the young side at seven, while Folsom Blue is a fraction too old at 12.
Only one of the past 10 winners was off the track for more than two months so Valtor, Rock The Kasbah and Step Back have been away too long.
One of the established trends that still work is that horses with more than two falls or unseats have a poor record. Most of these are good jumpers so only Minella Rocco and Ballyoptic are overlooked.
A win over at least 3m has always been important so Magic Of Light, A Toi Phil, Ultragold, Blow By Blow and Livelovelaugh have to go.
We still have 17 standing despite going through all those filters.
Eight of the past 10 National winners were no worse than sixth last time out which is bad news for Noble Endeavor, Tea For Two, Up For Review, Singlefarmpayment and General Principle.
Eight of the past 10 winners were 148 or higher in the official ratings, which is a worry for Joe Farrell, Walk In The Mill and Vintage Clouds.
No maiden chaser has won this in recent memory so it looks a tall order for Mall Dini.
It has been a must to have finished first or second in your past three runs. That’s not good for Outlander, Don Poli or Monbeg Notorious.
We’re now getting into shortlist territory with five left standing, down the card they are Mala Beach, Lake View Lad, Dounikos, Rathvinden and Jury Duty.
It’s not easy whittling them down further and you could easily spread your stake around and back a few of them.
But JURY DUTY was very impressive when winning at Down Royal last time and is a thorough stayer who looks capable of better still.
Lake View Lad has finished out of the frame just once in his 12 starts over fences and ran a cracker when third in the Ultima at Cheltenham last time. He has an excellent each-way shout.
Rathvinden won last year’s National Hunt Chase so is a proven stayer and will be there at the finish too.
TRENDS VERDICT: 1. Jury Duty, 2. Lake View Lad, 3. Rathvinden
Latest in Horse Racing
Link
https://textbacklinkexchanges.com/grand-national-trends-aintree-tips-we-help-you-find-the-big-race-winner-today/
News Photo Grand National trends: Aintree tips – we help you find the big race winner today
Advertising
You don’t have to pack away your dress just because you’re the wrong side of 20. These body-beautiful stars reveal their secrets to staying in shape and prove you can smoulder in a two-piece, whatever your age. Read on and be bikini inspired!
Kim says: “I am no super-thin Hollywood actress. I am built for men who like women to look like women.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/NINTCHDBPICT000480767561-e1554393657294.jpg?strip=all&w=960
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий