A snap general election would leave the Commons ever more divided as both the Tories and Labour face losing a handful of seats, polling expert Sir John Curtice forecast today.
Sir John - who is in charge of the main exit polls at general elections - will spell out the details in a speech to the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank later.
But a preview of the findings suggests the Tories would finish on 307 seats - down from 317 last time - with Labour on 256, down from the 262 it won in 2017.
Such results would leave the Conservative Party far short of a majority, which needs at least 320 seats. Even a renewed alliance with the DUP would not be enough.
Labour would also find it almost impossible to form a coalition government. A rainbow deal taking in Lib Dem and SNP MPs, plus all others, would technically be enough to install Mr Corbyn in No 10 but in a deeply fragile way.
A snap general election would leave the Commons ever more divided as both the Tories and Labour face losing a handful of seats, polling expert Sir John Curtice forecast today. The findings suggest the Tories would finish on 307 seats - down from 317 last time - with Labour on 256, down from the 262 it won in 2017
Sir John - who is in charge of the main exit polls at general elections (he is pictured delivering the 2017 edition) - will spell out the details in a speech to the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank
Government sources have warned a new election may be the only way to break the Brexit impasse if MPs reject the divorce deal a second time.
Theresa May's hopes look bleak ahead of the vote at 2.30pm, despite a series of high profile switches of support from Tory rebels - including from Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab, both of whom quit the Government over the deal.
A clutch of Leave-backing Conservatives including former Cabinet ministers Owen Paterson and Sir John Redwood and European Research Group vice-chairman Steve Baker made clear they will continue to oppose the agreement reached with the remaining 27 EU states in November.
And DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson said the Northern Irish party's 10 MPs will vote against the agreement because it 'betrays the wishes of the vast majority of people who voted to leave'.
Polls since the 2017 election have seen the two main parties mostly neck and neck. The Tories have held a narrow lead in recent months
Mr Wilson told MPs that passing the deal would make it 'impossible to find a way of securing the kind of assurances required to make sure the United Kingdom is not broken up.'
With Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn also ordering his party to vote against, Mrs May will need substantial numbers of Labour rebels to get her deal over the line.
In an apparent bid to woo wavering Labour MPs, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told the Commons that the Government would have backed an amendment from the party's Gareth Snell.
The Stoke Central MP's amendment, giving Parliament the right to set the negotiating mandate for talks on future relations with the EU, was not selected for debate by Speaker John Bercow.
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News Photo Brexit: Snap general election would leave Parliament MORE divided
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