THOMAS PATRICK can grind down his rivals in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury (3.00).
Tom Lacey’s improving stayer loves nothing more than a slog and that’s what he could get today, especially if the forecast rain turns up.
He improved in leaps and bounds last season and won here before ending the campaign with an excellent success against 15 rivals at Aintree.
He’s a fair 9lb higher in the weights since then and, at the age of six, he should be capable of improving past that.
His comeback run at Sandown last time was full of promise too. He jumped well and looked as though he would improve for that second place.
If it ends up a bit less testing then The Young Master could have his say at decent odds.
He gets on well with Sam Waley-Cohen who can claim what could be a crucial 3lb in such a tight race.
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He has not put a foot wrong in two starts this season with a win at Chepstow followed by a smooth success at Cheltenham last time, where he had an impressive eight lengths in hand.
His jumping is a real asset and a 4lb penalty for that last victory gives him every chance.
KEMBOY 3/5
Boy could grow up. Improving type who comes from the powerful Willie Mullins yard on the back of a convincing Grade 2 win at Clonmel last time out.
That completed a hat-trick after he scored in good company at Punchestown and Limerick. This trip suits and he’s on the upgrade so could cope with his big hike in the weights.
BLACK CORTON 4/5
Black won’t crack. Formed a great partnership with Bryony Frost last season to land a couple of hot novice chases. Made a rare mistake that took heroics to stay in the saddle when fancied coming back from seven months off in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby last time.
He stays this trip well and the handicapper hasn’t been too harsh with his mark. Must be in with every chance.
ELEGANT ESCAPE 4/5
Escape to victory. Has landed a couple of good wins in small fields and loved the heavy ground when winning at Sandown last time out.
That was a good effort coming back from a break and his breathing operation clearly worked. Looks like even more of a stayer than this 3m2f and will try to turn it in in the final mile.
AMERICAN 2/5
American’s dreaming. Did well in testing ground as a novice chaser in 2016-17 before coming back from a long break when pulled up in this race 12 months ago.
He then went well in a small field when second at Grade 2 level before struggling in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out. He’s a good jumper who stays this trip well but has a little to prove after last season.
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DINGO DOLLAR 2/5
Dollar won’t pay. Warmed up with a fair fourth over hurdles here coming back from seven months off earlier this month.
He’ll be fitter for that but his chasing form looks a bit short for this level. He won here off 18lb lower in the weights last season and stays well but this looks a tall order, although he has few miles on the clock as a chaser.
THOMAS PATRICK 5/5
Saint Patrick. Improved quickly last season, with a win here followed by an excellent big-field success at Aintree’s Grand National meeting.
That Grade 3 victory is the kind of form you need for this level and a 9lb rise in the weights since then looks more than fair.
He should be fitter for his comeback second at Sandown last time and his chances would be enhanced by more rain as he loves heavy ground. He’s improving and there should be more to come.
SIZING TENNESSEE 2/5
Tennessee’s in a state. Showed his best form for a long time when winning with plenty in hand on his comeback at Fontwell last time out.
He battled back when headed there over the 2m5f trip so this longer distance should suit well, as it did when he won at Cheltenham this time last year.
This is a much stiffer test than last time and he looks a little high in the weights for what he’s achieved.
BEWARE THE BEAR 2/5
Bear’s a bit grizzly. Has talent but can be very hit and miss. His best form has come with plenty of give in the ground and it may have been too quick for him when pulled up in the Scottish National last time out.
He earlier finished a good fourth in the Grade 3 Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, which is the sort of form he needs for this.
The handicapper has given him a little nudge downwards and he goes well fresh but he would need another step forward for this.
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GO CONQUER 3/5
Go could Conquer. One of several front-runners in the field who jumped well when third in the Sodexo Gold Cup over a similar trip at Ascot last time out having won that race last season.
He’s off the same mark as that and he’s one who would prefer the ground on the quicker side. He has winning form in a big field and could stick on for a place.
MS PARFOIS 3/5
Par for the course. Has been knocking on the door in good company, including when second in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
She relished the 4m distance there and was just run out of it late on over 3m1f at Aintree last time out, where a finishing kick was more of a factor. She may need more of a stamina test to beat horses of this quality.
ALLYSON MONTERG 2/5
Mon ain’t the one. Has been hiked 7lb for an easy enough win over 3m at Perth on his latest start back in April.
That was after a couple of more modest efforts, including being pulled up in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
He goes well fresh, so his layoff is not a big issue, but this is another step up in class so he needs a fair bit more.
FLYING ANGEL 2/5
Angel needs a miracle. Is on too long a losing run for a chaser with his ability. Was again right on the premises when second in good company at Ascot last time out where a first-time visor seemed to bring improvement.
He’s come down the weights enough to be interesting, although his best form has come over shorter trips and he rarely runs two races the same.
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WEST APPROACH 1/5
Approach with caution. Stayer who didn’t appreciate the drop back to 2m4f at Cheltenham last time after earlier going close over further on his seasonal comeback there in October.
Both his chase wins have come in minor novice events and he makes the odd error, which could leave him exposed in this company.
THE YOUNG MASTER 4/5
He could be the Master. Has come right back to his best this season with a win at Chepstow in October followed by a blistering success at Cheltenham last time, albeit in an amateur rider’s race.
He jumped well there and had lots in hand crossing the line under today’s pilot. He needs the ground to stay close to good as the mud doesn’t really suit and he’s handicapped to go close in decent conditions.
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News Pictures Ladbrokes Trophy runners and riders: Your pinstickers’ guide to the Newbury contest this Saturday
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