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воскресенье, 2 декабря 2018 г.

New photo PM battles to keep 'bleak' legal advice on her Brexit deal secret

Theresa May is facing a potentially catastrophic Brexit clash as Tory rebels unite with the DUP and Labour to demand full legal advice on her deal is released.


The Prime Minister is fighting to limit the information disclosed about the opinion of Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on the package she has thrashed out with Brussels.


The eminent QC and strident Brexiteer was a key figure in forcing the deal through the Cabinet - but there are claims his formal advice was far bleaker and he warned the UK would be stuck 'indefinitely' in the Irish border backstop.


Mr Cox is due to make a statement to the Commons tomorrow setting out his position on the agreement with the EU. 


But ministers have insisted they will only release a summary of his written advice as the full material would break convention and undermine the operation of government. 




The PM (pictured at the G20 summit in Argentina last night) is fighting to limit the information disclosed about the government's legal advice on the package she agreed with Brussels


The PM (pictured at the G20 summit in Argentina last night) is fighting to limit the information disclosed about the government's legal advice on the package she agreed with Brussels



The PM (pictured at the G20 summit in Argentina last night) is fighting to limit the information disclosed about the government's legal advice on the package she agreed with Brussels





Labour's Keir Starmer said today the circumstances were so 'exceptional' that the government's legal advice must be released


Labour's Keir Starmer said today the circumstances were so 'exceptional' that the government's legal advice must be released



Labour's Keir Starmer said today the circumstances were so 'exceptional' that the government's legal advice must be released





Jeremy Corbyn (pictured on the This Morning sofa last week) is under mounting pressure to back a second Brexit referendum


Jeremy Corbyn (pictured on the This Morning sofa last week) is under mounting pressure to back a second Brexit referendum






Attorney General Geoffrey Cox


Attorney General Geoffrey Cox



Labour has been demanding the release of the full legal advice from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox (right) on the Brexit deal. Jeremy Corbyn (pictured on the This Morning sofa last week) is under mounting pressure to back a second Brexit referendum









The DUP is ready to sign a joint letter with Labour complaining that ministers are in contempt of parliament - after a Commons motion called for the details to be issued.


It represents another massive hurdle for Mrs May to overcome as stares down the barrel of almost certain defeat in a crunch vote in the deal on December 11.


A heavy loss could bring Mrs May's time in Downing Street to a chaotic halt - although allies hope going down by a small margin could allow her to try again.


Meanwhile, demands for a second referendum are mounting after the dramatic resignation of universities minister Sam Gyimah over the weekend.


Senior Labour figures including shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer and deputy leader Tom Watson are thought to be ramping up pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to back a fresh national ballot.   


MPs across Parliament have angrily accused ministers of ignoring the will of the House after they said only that they would release a 'full reasoned political statement' on the legal position.

It follows a binding Commons vote last month requiring the Government to lay before Parliament 'any legal advice in full' - including that given by the Attorney General - relating to the Withdrawal Agreement.


Ministers chose not to oppose the motion - tabled by Labour under an arcane procedure known as the humble address - as they feared a damaging Commons defeat.


The latest row erupted row erupted as it was reported Mr Cox - who is due to make a statement to the Commons on Monday - had warned the UK could be tied to the EU customs union 'indefinitely' through the Northern Ireland 'backstop'.


The Sunday Times said in a letter sent last month to Cabinet ministers, he advised the only way out of the backstop - designed to prevent the return of a hard border with the Republic - once it was invoked was to sign a new trade deal, a process which could take years.



How does the Commons contempt process work? 



Under Commons rules, the Speaker decides whether to allow a contempt motion to go before the House.


If he does and the vote is carried, it would then be referred to the Committee of Privileges which would rule on whether a contempt of Parliament had taken place.


If it is decided that a contempt had occurred, the committee can recommend a suitable punishment which is then put back to MPs to agree.


In theory, the most severe penalty is expulsion from the House, although the prospects of that happening would appear remote.


There were only three expulsions in the 20th Century, with the last one in 1954. Two of them involved serious criminal convictions, and the third was for lying to a committee and allegedly taking bribes.  


However any finding against the Government would be potentially highly damaging for Mrs May at a time when she is at her most vulnerable politically.  




'The protocol would endure indefinitely,' he is reported to have written.


The letter was said to be so sensitive that ministers were given numbered copies to read which they were not allowed to take from the room afterwards.


Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab - who quit last month over the withdrawal agreement - said the legal position was clear.


'The backstop will last indefinitely until it is superseded by the treaty setting out our future relationship, unless the EU allows us to exit,' he told The Sunday Times.


'The EU has a clear veto, even if the future negotiations stretch on for many years, or even if they break down and there is no realistic likelihood of us reaching agreement.


'That's my view as a former international lawyer, but it is consistent if not identical with all of the formal advice I received.'


Ministers have argued the legal advice is privileged, in the same way as any advice given by a lawyer to their client, and that government cannot function if it is required to release such confidential material.


However, writing in The Sunday Telegraph, Sir Keir said it was essential MPs understood the 'full legal implications' before they voted on the agreement.


'If the full legal advice is not forthcoming, we will have no alternative but to start proceedings for contempt of Parliament - and we will work with all parties to take this forward,' he said.


'If ministers stubbornly refuse to obey the order of MPs then they risk triggering a historic constitutional row that puts Parliament in direct conflict with the executive.


'Although I accept the long-standing convention that Cabinet legal advice should be kept confidential, it's well-established that in exceptional circumstances that convention does not apply. And these are exceptional circumstances.'




Sir Keir and the DUP's Westminster leader Nigel Dodds (pictured) could sign a letter asking the Speaker to allow a motion 'that the Government has held Parliament in contempt'


Sir Keir and the DUP's Westminster leader Nigel Dodds (pictured) could sign a letter asking the Speaker to allow a motion 'that the Government has held Parliament in contempt'



Sir Keir and the DUP's Westminster leader Nigel Dodds (pictured) could sign a letter asking the Speaker to allow a motion 'that the Government has held Parliament in contempt'


Labour sources said that Sir Keir was ready to sign a joint letter with the DUP's Westminster leader Nigel Dodds, Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake and SNP Europe spokesman Stephen Gethins, asking Mr Bercow to allow a motion 'that the Government has held Parliament in contempt'.


Under Commons rules, if the Speaker allows the motion to go before the House and the vote is carried, it would then be referred to the Committee of Privileges which would rule on whether a contempt of Parliament had taken place.


If it is decided that a contempt had occurred, the committee can recommend a suitable punishment which is then put back to MPs to agree.


In theory, the most severe penalty is expulsion from the House, although the prospects of that happening would appear remote.


However any finding against the Government would be potentially highly damaging for Mrs May at a time when she is at her most vulnerable politically.



Is May's deal already sunk? 100 Tories have already come out against it meaning she must find almost 100 votes from Brexiteer rebels, DUP and Labour to get it through the Commons



Theresa May has secured her deal in Brussels but her fight to get it actually in place in time for Brexit day is just beginning.


The 'meaningful vote' promised to MPs will happen on December 11 and is the single biggest hurdle to the Brexit deal happening - and Mrs May' fate as PM.


Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up - but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes.


The number is less than half because the four Speakers, 7 Sinn Fein MPs and four tellers will not take part.


The situation looks grim for Mrs May and her whips: now the deal has been published, 100 of her own MPs and the 10 DUP MPs have publicly stated they will join the Opposition parties in voting No.


This means the PM could have as few as 225 votes in her corner - leaving 410 votes on the other side, a landslide majority 185.


This is how the House of Commons might break down:


Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up - but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes.







Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up - but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes.



The Government (plus various hangers-on)


Who are they: All members of the Government are the so-called 'payroll' vote and are obliged to follow the whips orders or resign. It includes the Cabinet, all junior ministers, the whips and unpaid parliamentary aides.


There are also a dozen Tory party 'vice-chairs and 17 MPs appointed by the PM to be 'trade envoys'.


How many of them are there? 178.


What do they want? For the Prime Minister to survive, get her deal and reach exit day with the minimum of fuss.


Many junior ministers want promotion while many of the Cabinet want to be in a position to take the top job when Mrs May goes.


How will they vote? With the Prime Minister.


European Research Group Brexiteers demanding a No Confidence Vote


Who are they: The most hard line of the Brexiteers, they launched a coup against Mrs May after seeing the divorce. Led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker.


How many of them are there: 26


What do they want: The removal of Mrs May and a 'proper Brexit'. Probably no deal now, with hopes for a Canada-style deal later.


How will they vote: Against the Prime Minister.


Other Brexiteers in the ERG


Who are they: There is a large block of Brexiteer Tory MPs who hate the deal but have so far stopped short of moving to remove Mrs May - believing that can destroy the deal instead. They include ex Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and ex minister Owen Paterson.


Ex ministers like Boris Johnson and David Davis are also in this group - they probably want to replace Mrs May but have not publicly moved against her.


How many of them are there? Around 50.


What do they want? The ERG has said Mrs May should abandon her plans for a unique trade deal and instead negotiate a 'Canada plus plus plus' deal.


This is based on a trade deal signed between the EU and Canada in August 2014 that eliminated 98 per cent of tariffs and taxes charged on goods shipped across the Atlantic.


The EU has long said it would be happy to do a deal based on Canada - but warn it would only work for Great Britain and not Northern Ireland.


How will they vote: Against the Prime Minister.


Remain including the People's Vote supporters


Who are they: Tory MPs who believe the deal is just not good enough for Britain. They include the group of unrepentant Remainers who want a new referendum like Anna Soubry and ex-ministers who quit over the deal including Jo Johnson and Phillip Lee.


How many of them are there: Maybe around 10.


What do they want? To stop Brexit. Some want a new referendum, some think Parliament should step up and say no.


A new referendum would take about six months from start to finish and they group wants Remain as an option on the ballot paper, probably with Mrs May's deal as the alternative.


How will they vote? Against the Prime Minister.


Moderates in the Brexit Delivery Group (BDG) and other Loyalists


Who are they? A newer group, the BDG counts members from across the Brexit divide inside the Tory Party. It includes former minister Nick Boles and MPs including Remainer Simon Hart and Brexiteer Andrew Percy.


There are also lots of unaligned Tory MPs who are desperate to talk about anything else.


How many of them are there? Based on public declarations, about 48 MPs have either said nothing or backed the deal.


What do they want? The BDG prioritises delivering on Brexit and getting to exit day on March 29, 2019, without destroying the Tory Party or the Government. If the PM gets a deal the group will probably vote for it.


It is less interested in the exact form of the deal but many in it have said Mrs May's Chequers plan will not work.


Mr Boles has set out a proposal for Britain to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA) until a free trade deal be negotiated - effectively to leave the EU but stay in close orbit as a member of the single market.


How will they vote? With the Prime Minister.


The DUP


Who are they? The Northern Ireland Party signed up to a 'confidence and supply' agreement with the Conservative Party to prop up the Government.


They are Unionist and say Brexit is good but must not carve Northern Ireland out of the Union.


How many of them are there? 10.


What do they want? A Brexit deal that protects Northern Ireland inside the UK.


How will they vote? Against the Prime Minister on the grounds they believe the deal breaches the red line of a border in the Irish Sea.


Labour Loyalists


Who are they? Labour MPs who are loyal to Jeremy Corbyn and willing to follow his whipping orders.


How many of them are there? Up to 250 MPs depending on exactly what Mr Corbyn orders them to do.


What do they want? Labour policy is to demand a general election and if the Government refuses, 'all options are on the table', including a second referendum.


Labour insists it wants a 'jobs first Brexit' that includes a permanent customs union with the EU. It says it is ready to restart negotiations with the EU with a short extension to the Article 50 process.


The party says Mrs May's deal fails its six tests for being acceptable.


How will they vote? Against the Prime Minister's current deal.


Labour Rebels


Who are they? A mix of MPs totally opposed to Mr Corbyn's leadership, some Labour Leave supporters who want a deal and some MPs who think any deal will do at this point.


How many of them are there? Maybe 10 to 20 MPs but this group is diminishing fast - at least for the first vote on the deal.


What do they want? An orderly Brexit and to spite Mr Corbyn.


How will they vote? With the Prime Minister.


Other Opposition parties


Who are they? The SNP, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, Green Caroline Lucas and assorted independents.


How many of them are there? About 60 MPs.


How will they vote? Mostly against the Prime Minister - though two of the independents are suspended Tories and two are Brexiteer former Labour MPs. 




 


https://textbacklinkexchanges.com/category/the-sun-world/
https://textbacklinkexchanges.com/pm-battles-to-keep-bleak-legal-advice-on-her-brexit-deal-secret/
News Pictures PM battles to keep 'bleak' legal advice on her Brexit deal secret

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